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❄️ FIRST CALL FORECAST ❄️ Who's ready for our most impactful winter storm in nearly three years? Let's break down the forecast: TIMING - Friday noon - Saturday AM KEY POINTS - Storm track has trended slightly SE ^ More cold air, less moisture available - Moisture arrives from SW along I-85 - Most spots will see snow at first - Transitions begin by sunset Fri from SE to NW - Moisture exits NE by sunrise Sat MOUNTAINS (WHITE ZONE) - High confidence - All snow - NW flow snow possible thru Sat PM - 3-6" of snow thru Sat AM - Additional 1-3" possible thru Sat PM - Minor impacts, minimal outages I-40 (BLUE ZONE) - Medium-high confidence - Mainly snow - Dry air may eat into moisture overnight - Sleet/snow mix possible Sat AM - 2-4" of snow, most will see closer to 2" - Roads hazardous thru Sat noon - Minimal/no outages I-85 (HASHED ZONE) - Medium confidence - Begins as snow - Transition to sleet mix possible overnight - 1-3" of snow/sleet, most will see closer to 1-2" - Up to .1" of ice - Roads hazardous thru Sat noon - Few outages possible, especially SE of I-85 SOUTHEAST OF METRO (PINK ZONE) - Medium confidence - Begins as wet snow - Transition to sleet/frz-rain mix likely overnight - May end as all rain early Sat AM - Trace-2" snow/sleet, most will see <1" - Up to .25" of ice - Scattered outages possible FORECAST CHALLENGES/CAVEATS - Will surface temps remain below freezing overnight? - Where will transition lines set up? - Storm track usually trends NW late ^ Could lead to more ice/sleet, less snow S of I-40 - How much dry air will filter from N? ^ Could eat into snow totals along/N of I-40 - How early will clouds arrive Friday AM? ^ Will play big role in initial temperatures - Models pointing at band of heavier snow after sunset ^ Where will band set up? BOTTOMLINE Snow is always a headache to forecast for in the Carolinas, but we don't do this because it's easy. The southeasterly trend in storm track will keep the region of all/mainly snow larger, but will also allow for more dry air to filter in from the north. I don't think this southeasterly trend will be the final shift; from experience (and learning from getting forecasts terribly wrong), there typically is some slide back to the northwest with these I-85 riders. While the heaviest snow will remain northwest of the Metro, areas along I-85 and southeast will likely see the worst impacts due to the transitions to sleet and freezing rain overnight. It also looks like surface temperatures will remain at-or-below freezing for most of us along I-85 and to the north; snow, sleet, and ice will almost certainly stick on untreated roads and elevated/grassy surfaces. Under 48 hours to go! Stay weather-wise and feel free to ask questions in the comments.