新媒网 · 跨境数据社区

🟡 XAUUSD Weekly Trade Analysis and Plan (June 16–20, 2025) 🟡 Fundamental Overview (High Impact News) Tuesday, June 17 – Retail Sales m/m & Core Retail Sales – ⏰ 3:30pm EAT Forecast: Core Retail Sales (+0.2%), Retail Sales (-0.6%) ⚠️ Mixed expectations: Negative retail headline may weaken USD 🟢 Dovish print = gold bullish | 🔴 Surprise beat = temporary gold retracement Wednesday, June 18 – FOMC Statement, Fed Rate, Press Conference – ⏰ 9:00pm–9:30pm EAT Forecast: No rate change (4.50%) High market-moving potential via: FOMC Economic Projections Fed Chair Powell's tone 🟢 Dovish tone or lower rate path = bullish gold 🔴 Hawkish shift (e.g., delayed cuts) = potential correction Geopolitical Risk: Israel–Iran war tensions escalating → safe haven flows remain intact Risk premium continues to support bullish gold bias 🟢 Technical Summary (Daily & Weekly) 🗓 Weekly Chart Previous Week: Opened 3289.46 → Closed 3310.01 → High 3403.48 Current Week: Closed at 3433.42, broke above prior external range high (3403.48) ✅ Fair Value Gap (FVG): 3433.42 → 3403.48 (unfilled) 🔺 Took liquidity above inside-week range (3289.52–3357.90) Bias: Bullish, unless invalidated by a close below 3342.36 (Daily safe zone) 📅 Daily Chart Friday Close: 3433.42 → Above SNR 3430.62 2 Daily FVG Zones: 3433.42 → 3398.97 (upper retracement) 3379.69 → 3360.83 (deeper retracement) Key Support Zones (liquidity traps): 3386.85 (mid-level SNR) 3354.99 (within FVG) 3342.36 (safe zone, strong support) 🪙 Liquidity Zones IRL (Internal Range Liquidity): 3403.48 (weekly FVG low + retail stop cluster) 3398.97 (daily FVG top) ERL (External Range Liquidity): 🔺 Above: 3446.98+, 3470+, 3500 🔻 Below: 3342.36, 3310.01, 3289.52 📌 Trading Plan 🔍 Bias: Bullish Gold is likely to pull back into fair value gaps before continuing its bullish trend, driven by technical structure and geopolitical premium. ✅ Entry Setup 1 – Shallow Retracement Trigger Zone: 3403.48–3398.97 Confirmation: Bullish rejection (1H/4H pin bar/engulfing) SL: Below 3386.85 TPs: TP1: 3430.62 TP2: 3446.98 TP3: 3470 ✅ Entry Setup 2 – Deep Retracement (Safe Zone Buy) Trigger Zone: 3360.83–3342.36 Confirmation: Strong bullish reaction with volume (after CPI/FOMC wick flush) SL: Below 3310.01 TPs: TP1: 3403.48 TP2: 3446.98 TP3: 3500 ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 3342.36 → Bullish bias weakened In all cases: reassess fundamental drivers (Fed tone, war news) ⏱ Timing Considerations Time Catalyst Strategy 🕞 Tue 3:30pm Retail Sales Enter on retracement into FVG if weak data prints 🕘 Wed 9:00–9:30pm FOMC + Powell Trade post-statement only; avoid pre-news trades All Week Geopolitical Tension Safe-haven demand = buy dips, don’t short blindly #XAUUSD #xauusdgold #XAUUSD #XAUUSD_Trading #XAUUSD_Signal #xauusdanalysis